The world this week

8 01 2010

Here’s the usual international affairs and business weekly bulletin (Source: The Economist, per 08/01/2010 print edition)

Politics this week

Yemeni government forces stepped up a campaign against al-Qaeda suspects, as a clamour grew in the West after a failed attempt by a Nigerian jihadist to blow up an airliner approaching Detroit on Christmas Day. The man had recently been in Yemen. Security forces there said they had killed several al-Qaeda people and arrested at least three others. The American, British and French embassies in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, were temporarily closed after reports of planned attacks against them by al-Qaeda.

With airport security tightened, Barack Obama responded to mounting political pressure about the failed attack by castigating America’s intelligence services for not stopping the plot. The American president said there had been enough evidence from various parts of the intelligence system to prevent the bomber from boarding the plane in Amsterdam, but that intelligence officers had “failed to connect those dots”. See article

 America said it was pondering new sanctions to press Iran to curb its nuclear programme, in particular by targeting the powerful Revolutionary Guard. But China said it was still too soon to take such measures. See article

 Iranian officials warned protesters that they could face death as enemies of God if they continued publicly to express dissent. An opposition manifesto written by five prominent exiles was widely aired in Iran and abroad. Reports circulated that Mir Hosein Mousavi, the thwarted candidate in last year’s presidential election, would be arrested. See article

Argentina’s president, Cristina Fernández, sacked the central bank governor, Martín Redrado, after he failed to back her plan to use $6.6 billion of the country’s foreign-exchange reserves to pay public debt. Mr Redrado’s office said he would stay in the job until his term ends in September. See article

 More than 90 people were killed when a suicide-bomber detonated his vehicle in a crowd watching a volleyball game in north-west Pakistan. The attack took place in a village in Bannu district, which is close to the tribal area of South Waziristan, where Pakistan’s army has been fighting Taliban extremists. See article

Afghanistan’s parliament rejected 17 of 24 nominees for cabinet posts put forward by the president, Hamid Karzai. Mr Karzai then ordered the postponement of parliament’s winter recess, in the hope of filling the posts before an international conference on Afghanistan to be held in London in late January. See article

Just months before an election is due in Britain, yet another plot was hatched by disgruntled Labour Party MPs to try to topple Gordon Brown. The conspiracy fizzled when cabinet ministers (belatedly) said they (grudgingly) supported the prime minister.

Iceland is to hold a referendum after its president vetoed a plan to pay $5.5 billion to compensate Dutch and British savers who lost their money when Iceland’s banking system collapsed in 2008. See article

Business this week

Novartis, a Swiss drugmaker, agreed to pay Nestlé, the world’s biggest food company, $28.1 billion for Nestlé’s 52% holding in Alcon. The American eye-care company is best known for its contact-lens products, but also has significant businesses in eye-treatments and surgery. Novartis bought an initial 25% stake in Alcon from Nestlé in 2008. Including an offer to buy out minority shareholders, the deal is worth $49.7 billion, the biggest takeover in Swiss corporate history. See article

Kraft then announced that it would put the proceeds from selling its pizza division towards increasing the cash proportion of its hostile bid for Cadbury. This is partly in response to angry Kraft investors, such as Warren Buffett, who argue that Kraft’s proposal to issue up to 370m new shares to acquire Cadbury would destroy shareholder value.

Google entered the smart-phone market with Nexus One, which runs on the web giant’s Android operating system and is made by HTC of Taiwan. Advertised as a rival to Apple’s iPhone, the Nexus One will be sold in an “unlocked” state to let users choose their own wireless provider.

In a speech at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Ben Bernanke again blamed the worst financial crisis in decades on weak regulatory oversight that failed to put a stop to the lax lending practices that precipitated the housing bubble. The chairman of the Federal Reserve has been deflecting criticism from those in Congress who want to curb the central bank’s powers. Some say it was mostly the Fed’s loose monetary policy that caused the bubble.

Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group became the latest big financial institution to bolster capital by announcing another huge share issue, which it hopes will raise ¥800 billion ($9 billion). It also confirmed that Goldman Sachs will convert ¥100 billion of SMFG preferred shares into common stock. A committee in Basel that sets capital standards for banks worldwide has called for a shake-up in the way capital is measured, with more weight given to equity.

Dubai officially opened the $1.5 billion Burj Khalifa tower, which at 828 metres is the world’s tallest building. It will also contain the planet’s highest mosque and swimming pool. In mid-December Dubai received a $10 billion bail-out from Abu Dhabi, a wealthier neighbouring emirate, to aid Dubai World, a state-backed conglomerate which faces a debt crisis caused by its commercial-property arm.





Burj Dubai becomes Burj Khalifa as Emirate loses out on crowning glory

5 01 2010

From The Times, 05 Jan 2010.

It was heralded as Dubai’s crowning achievement but the cash-strapped emirate was forced to swallow its pride yesterday and rename the world’s tallest building after its financial rescuer — the ruler of its oil-rich neighbour.

The humiliating announcement was made by Dubai’s own leader at the dazzling launch of the $1.5 billion (£930 million) Burj Dubai, which will now be known as Burj Khalifa in honour of Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates.

The launch was intended to be the latest grand statement announcing Dubai’s further emergence on to the world stage. Instead, a massive fireworks display to inaugurate the 828m (2,716ft) megalith could not disguise the reality that Dubai’s achievements are not its own so long as Abu Dhabi is picking up the tab.

In the past 12 months Dubai has witnessed the collapse of its property market, driving down real estate values by up to 50 per cent. Confidence within international financial markets that it could honour its debts evaporated when one of its biggest state-backed companies asked for a loan repayment holiday in November.

Abu Dhabi has had to step in to bail its neighbour out, lending Dubai $25 billion (£15.5 billion) to meet its immediate obligations. Few doubt that more is to follow.

There has been speculation for weeks about what Abu Dhabi might extract for the financial lifeline. Few expected the price to be so public. Minutes before the tower’s official opening last night Dubai’s hereditary ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, dedicated it to the head of Abu Dhabi’s ruling family — who did not grace the ceremony with his presence.

Both leaders will be hoping that the building defies precedents. Similar mega-buildings — and this one is more than 300m taller than the previous record-holder in Taipei — typically run into problems after being commissioned in a fit of excessive optimism at the top of a market that has turned to bust by the time construction has finished.

The timing of the Burj Khalifa seems to have followed this pattern. Emerging near the summit after an ear-popping lift ride to its 124th floor, one is reminded of how far Dubai has to go, seeing how much of the city remains incomplete.

Far below, foundations for future buildings sit gouged out of the ground as half-built tower blocks rise above them.

The district surrounding the tower, intended to be Dubai’s new city centre, hosts the world’s largest shopping mall, some luxury villas — and a thicket of cranes still building the rest.

Source: The Times





Calendar for 2010

3 01 2010

Calendar for 2010 – The Economist 2010 preview..

JANUARY

Spain assumes the rotating presidency of the European Union and Pécs (in Hungary), Essen (Germany) and Istanbul (Turkey) become European capitals of culture.

The great and good from business, politics and the media puzzle out the state of the world at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

President Barack Obama delivers his first state-of-the-union address, telling Americans how it is. Mr Obama’s self-imposed deadline arrives for the closure of the Guantánamo Bay detention centre.

FEBRUARY

Chinese around the world welcome the Year of the Tiger, symbolising power and sensitivity (but also short tempers), just as the world’s lovers, actual or would-be, celebrate St Valentine’s Day.

After legal battles, controversy surrounds the 33rd America’s Cup, a yachting contest for fractious billionaires.

Rio de Janeiro’s hedonists revel in the world’s most famous carnival. Trinidad and New Orleans do their best to compete.

American giants confront each other in Miami in football’s 44th Super Bowl. Lesser mortals, by their millions, watch the game, and ads, on TV.

Costa Rica holds its presidential election.

Snow-loving athletes compete in the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, Canada.

MARCH

Musicians delight in the music of Chopin, born 200 years ago.

Hollywood rolls out the red carpet for the 82nd Academy Awards. Oscars for the film world’s best come after Golden Raspberries for the film world’s worst.

French-speakers around the world wax eloquent on the international day of la francophonie.

Canada upsets seal-lovers as it begins its annual seal hunt.

Southern-hemisphere naturists, from Australia to South Africa, celebrate their nudity with a naked bike ride.

APRIL

April Fools make fun around the world.

American households answer (supposedly) the once-in-a-decade census questionnaire.

Tiger Woods attempts to win the US Masters golf tournament in Augusta for a fifth time, just one behind Jack Nicklaus’s record.

Austria holds its six-yearly presidential election, and Hungary elects a parliament. With luck the Sudanese vote in presidential and general elections—the first for many years in their war-torn nation.

Coffee-makers from around the world gather in London for the World Barista Championships.

MAY

The 189 signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty meet in New York to review it.

Spare a grin for World Laughter Day.

The Philippines elects a new president and Congress.

Britain holds its general election this month, if not next.

The six-month World Expo 2010 begins in Shanghai, China.

Norway hosts the kitsch-filled Eurovision Song Contest; France hosts the star-studded Cannes film festival.

Macedonia assumes the leadership of the Council of Europe, promoting democracy and human rights.

JUNE

France celebrates the summer solstice with the Fête de la Musique: free music played outdoors, from Paris to the smallest village.

Canada hosts a summit of both the G8 and G20 in Huntsville, Ontario.

Soccer’s best nations convene in South Africa for the month-long FIFA World Cup.

The tennis elite moves from the red clay of the French Open to the green grass of Wimbledon.

JULY

Belgium takes a six-month turn as president of the European Union.

Cycling’s Tour de France, three weeks of athletic agony, begins, confusingly, in the Netherlands.

At the San Fermín festival, macho types—both Spanish and foreign—taunt stampeding bulls in the Pamplona bull run.

America celebrates independence on the 4th and France celebrates revolution on the 14th.

Strong men compete in Finland’s wife-carrying world championship. The winner gets his wife’s weight in beer.

The fashion world crowds the catwalk for the Paris Haute Couture week.

AUGUST

The deadline arrives for American combat troops to leave Iraq. Others will stay to train Iraqi soldiers and police.

Much of Europe takes a month-long holiday.

Free-flying aesthetes in the skies of Russia conclude the World Artistic Skydiving Championships.

Thousands gather in London’s Notting Hill district for Europe’s biggest street carnival.

Post-genocide Rwanda holds its second presidential election, with the winner in office for seven years.

SEPTEMBER

Bookworms salute International Literacy Day, designed to increase their number.

Intrepid rally-drivers meet in Beijing for the start of the Peking to Paris Motor Challenge.

The world’s diplomats gather in New York for the UN General Assembly.

OCTOBER

Beer-lovers end the Munich Oktoberfest, having downed enough gallons to keep it as the world’s biggest beer festival.

America’s best travel to Wales to compete with Europe’s best for golf’s Ryder Cup.

Hawaii challenges the fittest to survive its Ironman triathlon.

Germany celebrates 20 years since unification.

The Nobel peace laureate is proclaimed in Oslo; other laureates are announced in Stockholm.

Egyptians elect a 518-member People’s Assembly, with 64 seats now reserved for women, and Brazil holds presidential and general elections.

Athletes from 71 nations compete in the Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India.

NOVEMBER

Americans elect a new 435-member House of Representatives and a third of the 100-seat Senate. Some 39 states choose a governor, too.

Guangzhou in China hosts the Asian Games.

Seoul, South Korea, hosts a G20 summit.

Burkina Faso elects a president, and Azerbaijan a parliament.

Japan hosts heads of government at an Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Yokohama.

Beautiful women and their male admirers travel to Nha Trang, Vietnam, for the 60th Miss World contest.

DECEMBER

Tanzania holds presidential, parliamentary and local elections.

Google announces the most-searched items of the year.

The Kluge prize, worth $1m, is awarded in Washington for lifetime achievement in disciplines (such as linguistics and anthropology) not covered by the Nobel prizes.

America celebrates the 390th anniversary of the landing of the Pilgrim Fathers.





Formula 1: Schumacher joins Mercedes GP

23 12 2009

Mercedes GP has confirmed Michael Schumacher as its driver for next season, in a deal believed to be one-year long and worth €7 million.

The much-anticipated move will reunite Schumacher, who turns 41 in January, with team principal Ross Brawn, with whom he has secured all seven of his world championships. He will be part of an all German team with 24-year-old Nico Rosberg, who agreed a deal with Mercedes last month.

“The motivation I think is pretty straightforward,” Schumacher said. “Our aim can only be to fight for the championship.

“The call I got from Ross at the end of November concerning the chance to go racing, Mercedes being involved, I felt great. I never left the race track. I was tired of F1 by the end of 2006, but in three years of absence I got back all the energy that I am feeling right now. I played around with motorbikes and I feel ready for some serious stuff now.”

Schumacher was expected to return with Ferrari last year as a replacement for the injured Felipe Massa. But his comeback was cancelled after a neck injury, sustained in a motorbike test in February, turned out to be more serious than previously thought. He has recently undergone extensive medical tests, and has now declared himself fit to race.

“It is obviously a topic that I understand is questioned, and I want to understand,” Schumacher said when asked about his neck. “Before I gave a final okay I made sure that I was sure myself, and I can say 100% the neck is no further issue. Unfortunately it was too close to the accident in the summer when I tried for Ferrari, but the time now is enough to have healed completely. I can do everything I used to do, and no problem.”

Brawn said he now had one of the best driver line ups in F1 and was confident Schumacher could challenge for the title next year.

“[Schumacher] is the best judge of what he can do,” Brawn said. “I trust him explicitly and he told me he can do it. He has always been his own best critic, the man himself knows what he is capable of. I am very comfortable and confident and put my trust in Michael, and it won’t be misplaced.”

Brawn won both drivers’ and constructors’ titles in 2009 with Jenson Button, but the British driver left the team last month to drive for McLaren. When asked, Brawn denied Button was pushed out of the team to make space for Schumacher.

“We made a good effort to try to find a solution with Jenson and it didn’t work out,” he said. “Jenson made his decision in the end not to stay. We made a big effort to keep him but it wasn’t possible in the end.

“It overlapped to be honest. I had a loyalty to Jenson but when that started to look difficult I started talking to Michael, and things developed from there. Michael and I kept very close over the years and I saw from his disappointment over the summer, when he couldn’t drive a Ferrari, how much passion he still has for the sport. We’re incredibly excited now about the prospect of Michael being part of the team.”

Although initially for one year, the deal is thought to allow Schumacher a chance to renew, should his comeback be as successful as many expect. Mercedes is likely to be covering its bases with the big-name signing, until Sebastian Vettel is free from his Red Bull contract in 2012.

Source: ESPN EMEA Ltd (f1-live.com)





SAAB 1947-2009: GM will close SAAB

20 12 2009

It’s a sad day for Saabphiles, as GM announced – one week to the day before Christmas – that it has failed to find a buyer for Saab. It will begin winding down the Saab operation immediately.

There had been a glimmer hope for Saab earlier this month, as supercar maker Spyker stepped in as a possible suitor after similarly small sports car specialist Koenigsegg walked away from a potential deal in November 2009.

But GM admitted it could not viably sell Saab to Spyker – and no other bidders were forthcoming. Saab has reached the end of the road.

Why GM had to close Saab

Every passing week that the sale dragged on was a drain on GM’s finances. Saab has been bankrupt since spring 2009, lying under the protection of the Swedish courts. The negotiations to sell had proven so complex, and so time-consuming, that GM just couldn’t afford to fund the continuing operation while ever less likely suitors circled the bones of Saab.

‘Despite the best efforts of all involved, it has become very clear that the due diligence required to complete this complex transaction could not be executed in a reasonable time,’ admitted new GM Europe president Nick Reilly. ‘In order to maintain operations, Saab needed a quick resolution.

‘We regret that we were not able to complete this transaction with Spyker Cars. We will work closely with the Saab organisation to wind down the business in an orderly and responsible manner. This is not a bankruptcy or forced liquidation process. Consequently, we expect Saab to satisfy debts including supplier payments, and to wind down production and the distribution channel in an orderly manner while looking after our customers.’

What Saab’s closure means

The factory and headquarters in Trollhattan, Sweden, has closed. The operation had in effect been mothballed during the bankruptcy process, anyway. GM last week inked a deal to sell tooling for the 9-3, 9-5 and powertrain technology to Chinese firm BAIC, which is expected to sell these models in its domestic market.

Saab dealers will close, too – a similar fate that befell MG Rover outlets in 2005. GM has, however, promised to honour warranty work and spare parts supply.

CAR laments the passing of one of the most interesting mainstream brands in the motoring universe. Saab had a strong pioneering spirit in its heyday, leading the field in turbocharging, rallying, interior ergonomics and distinctive styling. But in recent years, GM’s ownership stifled Saab’s creativity and it was forced into the corporate straitjacket of what was the world’s biggest car maker.

Source: http://www.carmagazine.co.uk





The World This Week: Politics and Business News (18/12/2009)

18 12 2009

Highlights of the main political and business news. Source: The Economist (18/12/2009)

Politics

Divisions between rich and poor countries emerged swiftly as the Copenhagen conference on climate change got under way, with the leaking of a document drafted by Denmark, the host country. Developing countries think that developed countries need to make bigger cuts in their emissions and offer more cash than hitherto envisaged. Barack Obama delayed his trip to the summit to coincide with other world leaders, who will attend the talks next week. See article

With good timing, America’s Environmental Protection Agency declared that six greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, “threaten the health and welfare of the American people”. The decision could open the way for the Obama administration to impose its own curbs on emissions, although Congress may want the final say.

Romania’s presidential election was narrowly won by the incumbent, Traian Basescu. His challenger, Mircea Geoana, cried fraud. See article

France invited 21 fellow European Union countries to a debate on the EU’s common agricultural policy. The French said non-invitees such as the British and Dutch would be welcome so long as they supported a “strong” CAP.

American prosecutors in Chicago charged a man with involvement in the attacks on Mumbai in November 2008. David Headley, who used to be known as Daood Gilani, was accused of identifying targets for the attacks, in which 174 people died.

America’s special representative to North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, visited Pyongyang. It was his first visit since being appointed by Barack Obama. He was to assess North Korea’s interest in returning to six-party talks on denuclearisation, but officials said he would offer no fresh incentives for it to do so.

A string of bombs killed at least 120 people in or near government buildings in Baghdad, including a courthouse. An al-Qaeda or Baathist group was suspected of trying to destabilise Iraq in the run-up to a general election expected in early March. A long-awaited election law had been ratified two days before the bombings. November’s official violent-death toll of 88 was the lowest since the American invasion in 2003. See article

Venezuela’s government closed seven small banks and accused several of their owners of fraud. Some of those involved had close ties to leading figures in President Hugo Chávez’s regime. See article

Mexico’s president, Felipe Calderón, designated his finance minister, Agustín Carstens, as the next governor of the Bank of Mexico, the central bank. Ernesto Cordero, the social-development minister and a former aide to Mr Carstens, will be the new finance minister.

A court in Chile charged three people connected to the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet with poisoning Eduardo Frei Montalva, a former president, in 1982. Frei led the moderate opposition to the dictatorship. His son, the presidential candidate of the ruling Concertación coalition, faces a difficult election on December 13th.

Finance and economics

Greece’s credit rating was downgraded to BBB+, with a negative outlook, by Fitch, the first time in a decade that the country has received a rating below A. The downgrade caused stockmarkets to fall amid fears of a potential wider fiscal crisis in the euro area. Investors were further perturbed when Moody’s cut its ratings for state-owned companies in Dubai, underlining the extent of the Gulf emirate’s debt woes. Worries were also raised about ballooning deficits in America and Britain, where governments have been urged to take action to get spending under control. See article

In his pre-budget report, Alistair Darling laid out plans to increase tax on middle-income earners and cap pay rises for public-sector workers in order to tackle Britain’s budget deficit, which is expected to reach £178 billion ($289 billion) this year. See article

The chancellor also imposed an immediate 50% tax (to last until April) on bank bonuses over £25,000 ($41,000). The tax will be paid by banks rather than individuals and covers employees of foreign banks working in Britain as well as British banks. City workers were not pleased; bank bosses warned of a brain drain. See article

Ireland’s finance minister unveiled huge public-sector pay cuts in a budget, which aims to reduce the government deficit from 11.7% of GDP this year to 2.9% in 2014. See article

Barack Obama said that opting either to reduce America’s deficit or invest in job creation was a “false choice”. The American president unveiled fresh proposals—a new stimulus package, some said—to boost employment. These include a tax incentive for companies that take on new workers, an idea that had been rejected because it could provide employers with a perverse incentive to sack staff and then re-employ them.

The Treasury Department extended the Troubled Asset Relief Programme until October 2010; it was due to expire this year. TARP was set up to bail out banks, but its remit has gradually widened, with Mr Obama now wanting it to provide loans to small businesses. A report from a congressional panel that monitors TARP said an effective assessment of the programme was hampered by the Treasury’s “failure to articulate clear goals or to provide specific measures of success”. Tim Geithner, the treasury secretary, told Congress that banks were returning the money they had obtained under the scheme.

New strategic alliances among carmakers highlighted the growing importance of the Asian market. Germany’s Volkswagen agreed to pay $2.5 billion for a 19.9% stake in Japan’s Suzuki, and General Motors announced a joint venture with SAIC, its Chinese partner, to produce small cars in India. Talks are continuing between PSA Peugeot Citroën and Mitsubishi, which could see the French carmaker take a stake of up to 50% in its Japanese counterpart. See article

Andy Harrison resigned as chief executive of easyJet, a pioneering low-cost airline in Europe, amid a boardroom battle over the company’s future strategy with Stelios Haji-Ioannou, its founder and biggest shareholder.





Il Cile si ispira all’Italia. Il caso di Sebastian Pinera

15 12 2009

Vi segnaliamo questa notizia che viene dal Cile.

Sebastian Pinera, un candidato di destra, si è aggiudicato il primo turno delle elezioni cilene e, per la prima volta in 16 anni, la sinistra dovrebbe perdere il controllo del paese. Chi è Sebastian Pinera? E’ un imprenditore cileno. I suoi interessi commerciali includono: una televisione (Chilevisión),  una compagnia aerea (Lan Airlines), una squadra di calcio cilena di successo (la Colo-Colo) e svariate partecipazioni azionarie in diverse altre aziende. Nel 1982 venne arrestato per truffa quando era un direttore alla Bank of Talca (fu latitante per 24 giorni). Due anni fa è stato multato US $680,000 per aggiotaggio. Domenica scorsa, quindi, si è aggiudicato il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali cilene (il 17 gennaio ci sarà il secondo turno). Pinera ha dichiarato di voler far uscire il Paese dal letargo e di voler rilanciare l’economia del Cile (“Chile needs a true renaissance which frees us from this state of lethargy”).

Sources: various





Abu Dhabi rescues Dubai

14 12 2009

DUBAI, one of seven members of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is now in the middle of its international film festival, which includes “City of Life”, a film set in Dubai and directed by a local. But the most gripping cliff-hanger is playing out in Dubai’s debt markets. On Monday December 14th Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest member of the UAE, arrived on the scene at the last moment to rescue its neighbour from the brink of default.

It provided $10 billion to Dubai’s government, more than enough to repay the $4.1 billion due on Monday to holders of a sukuk, or Islamic bond, issued by Nakheel, a prominent developer. Nakheel belongs to Dubai World, a holding company owned by the Dubai government, which less than three weeks ago requested a standstill on repayments of $26 billion of debt, perplexing investors and panicking global markets.

Just as every film-goer knows that the damsel in distress will be saved in the end, so Dubai’s creditors had long assumed that the emirate would be saved by its oil-rich neighbour. But the standstill announced on November 25th departed from this script, creating genuine suspense.

Investors knew Abu Dhabi could not let its neighbour fail without damaging its own economic interests. They assumed that Abu Dhabi knew this too. Therefore when it let Dubai walk to the edge, it was deeply unsettling. Either Abu Dhabi’s policymakers did not know the damage this would do, or they did not care. The announcement on Monday suggests that Abu Dhabi did care. It just did not anticipate quite how badly creditors would react.

Nakheel’s creditors can now be repaid, but Dubai’s credibility cannot be repaired so easily. Its solvency rests on a relationship with its neighbour that is impossible to fathom. At least this latest handout dropped the fig leaves that disguised Abu Dhabi’s previous gestures of support. It was given directly from one government to the other, unlike the $10 billion routed through the UAE’s central bank in February and the $5 billion lent in November through two commercial banks partly owned by the Abu Dhabi government.

Even now, Dubai’s creditors cannot expect every claim to be redeemed in full. The money left over after the Nakheel sukuk is repaid will go to Dubai World’s suppliers and contractors, who endured a standstill on payments long before the company asked the same of its creditors. The money will service Dubai World’s other debts only if the group is “successful in negotiating a standstill as previously announced,” the statement says.

If those negotiations falter, Dubai World’s fate will be governed by a brand new “reorganisation law”, unveiled on Monday. The UAE already has a bankruptcy law, but almost no one uses it. Any creditor foolhardy enough to test the regime can expect to recover just ten cents on the dollar, the World Bank calculates.

The new decree instead appoints three judges from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), a 110-acre “free zone” with its owns laws, written in English and based on common-law principles. The judges include one who formerly sat in the High Court of England and Wales and a Singaporean who previously served on his country’s Supreme Court. They will apply DIFC law, with some tweaks, including a provision to allow for an automatic stay on creditors’ claims.

Their expertise will not be needed if Dubai World’s creditors now come to terms. The chances are good that they will. The shock they have suffered over the past three weeks may have softened them up. And the underlying case for a restructuring of Dubai’s debts has some merit, even if the government has so far handled it abysmally. Dubai, one might say, has had one life. Now it must make a success of its second.

Source: The Economist (14/12/2009)





The World This Week: Politics and Business News (11/12/2009)

12 12 2009

Highlights of the main political and business news. Source: The Economist (11/12/2009)

POLITICS

Divisions between rich and poor countries emerged swiftly as the Copenhagen conference on climate change got under way, with the leaking of a document drafted by Denmark, the host country. Developing countries think that developed countries need to make bigger cuts in their emissions and offer more cash than hitherto envisaged. Barack Obama delayed his trip to the summit to coincide with other world leaders, who will attend the talks next week. See article

With good timing, America’s Environmental Protection Agency declared that six greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, “threaten the health and welfare of the American people”. The decision could open the way for the Obama administration to impose its own curbs on emissions, although Congress may want the final say.

After a recount, Kasim Reed was declared the winner in an election for Atlanta’s mayor, beating Mary Norwood, who would have become the first white mayor since 1973 in the predominantly black city.

Romania’s presidential election was narrowly won by the incumbent, Traian Basescu. His challenger, Mircea Geoana, cried fraud. See article

France invited 21 fellow European Union countries to a debate on the EU’s common agricultural policy. The French said non-invitees such as the British and Dutch would be welcome so long as they supported a “strong” CAP.

Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir Putin, attacked local officials for safety lapses that may have contributed to a fire in a nightclub in Perm that killed almost 120 people.

Two days of rioting broke out in Athens on the first anniversary of the killing by police of a 15-year-old schoolboy. The shooting incident ignited two weeks of rioting last year.

Pakistan continued to suffer terrorist attacks. At least 49 people were killed by bomb blasts in a crowded market in Lahore. That followed an attack on a mosque in Rawalpindi, where the army has its headquarters, in which 35 people died. There were also attacks outside a courthouse in Peshawar and on an office of the country’s main intelligence agency in Multan, each killing a dozen people.

American prosecutors in Chicago charged a man with involvement in the attacks on Mumbai in November 2008. David Headley, who used to be known as Daood Gilani, was accused of identifying targets for the attacks, in which 174 people died.

The authorities in Bangladesh arrested and handed over to India Arabinda Rajkhowa, the chairman of the United Liberation Front of Asom, which has been fighting for a homeland independent from India for ethnic Assamese. See article

The government of the Philippines declared martial law in the southern province of Maguindanao, on the island of Mindanao, giving warning that a rebellion was looming. The move followed a recent massacre of 57 people in the region, blamed on a local mayor and members of his powerful clan. See article

The government meanwhile resumed talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which for four decades has been waging an insurgency on Mindanao. The talks, in Kuala Lumpur, are aimed at reaching an agreement by April next year.

America’s special representative to North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, visited Pyongyang. It was his first visit since being appointed by Barack Obama. He was to assess North Korea’s interest in returning to six-party talks on denuclearisation, but officials said he would offer no fresh incentives for it to do so.

A string of bombs killed at least 120 people in or near government buildings in Baghdad, including a courthouse. An al-Qaeda or Baathist group was suspected of trying to destabilise Iraq in the run-up to a general election expected in early March. A long-awaited election law had been ratified two days before the bombings. November’s official violent-death toll of 88 was the lowest since the American invasion in 2003. See article

Three leading members of the opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement were arrested in Khartoum after a demonstration demanding reform of the election laws ahead of next year’s general election, the first since 1986.

Hifikepunye Pohamba, head of the South West Africa People’s Organisation, better known as SWAPO, was easily re-elected Namibia’s president, with 75% of votes cast.

Bolivia’s president, Evo Morales, appeared to win a second term by a landslide, with exit polls giving him 61% of the vote and his Movement to Socialism party a two-thirds majority in Congress. The result will allow him to implement a new constitution granting new rights to indigenous peoples and to strengthen state control over the economy. See article

Venezuela’s government closed seven small banks and accused several of their owners of fraud. Some of those involved had close ties to leading figures in President Hugo Chávez’s regime. See article

Mexico’s president, Felipe Calderón, designated his finance minister, Agustín Carstens, as the next governor of the Bank of Mexico, the central bank. Ernesto Cordero, the social-development minister and a former aide to Mr Carstens, will be the new finance minister.

A court in Chile charged three people connected to the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet with poisoning Eduardo Frei Montalva, a former president, in 1982. Frei led the moderate opposition to the dictatorship. His son, the presidential candidate of the ruling Concertación coalition, faces a difficult election on December 13th.

BUSINESS

Greece’s credit rating was downgraded to BBB+, with a negative outlook, by Fitch, the first time in a decade that the country has received a rating below A. The downgrade caused stockmarkets to fall amid fears of a potential wider fiscal crisis in the euro area. Investors were further perturbed when Moody’s cut its ratings for state-owned companies in Dubai, underlining the extent of the Gulf emirate’s debt woes. Worries were also raised about ballooning deficits in America and Britain, where governments have been urged to take action to get spending under control. See article

In his pre-budget report, Alistair Darling laid out plans to increase tax on middle-income earners and cap pay rises for public-sector workers in order to tackle Britain’s budget deficit, which is expected to reach £178 billion ($289 billion) this year. See article

The chancellor also imposed an immediate 50% tax (to last until April) on bank bonuses over £25,000 ($41,000). The tax will be paid by banks rather than individuals and covers employees of foreign banks working in Britain as well as British banks. City workers were not pleased; bank bosses warned of a brain drain. See article

Revised figures showed that Japan’s economy grew by 1.3% on an annualised basis between July and September, a much slower pace than the 4.8% estimated last month. Companies had not invested as much in new assets as had been previously thought. Meanwhile, the Japanese government agreed on the details of another round of stimulus spending of about ¥7.2 trillion ($82 billion).

Ireland’s finance minister unveiled huge public-sector pay cuts in a budget, which aims to reduce the government deficit from 11.7% of GDP this year to 2.9% in 2014. See article

Iceland’s economy continued to fare poorly, shrinking by 5.7% in the third quarter compared with the preceding three months.

Barack Obama said that opting either to reduce America’s deficit or invest in job creation was a “false choice”. The American president unveiled fresh proposals—a new stimulus package, some said—to boost employment. These include a tax incentive for companies that take on new workers, an idea that had been rejected because it could provide employers with a perverse incentive to sack staff and then re-employ them.

The Treasury Department extended the Troubled Asset Relief Programme until October 2010; it was due to expire this year. TARP was set up to bail out banks, but its remit has gradually widened, with Mr Obama now wanting it to provide loans to small businesses. A report from a congressional panel that monitors TARP said an effective assessment of the programme was hampered by the Treasury’s “failure to articulate clear goals or to provide specific measures of success”. Tim Geithner, the treasury secretary, told Congress that banks were returning the money they had obtained under the scheme.

New strategic alliances among carmakers highlighted the growing importance of the Asian market. Germany’s Volkswagen agreed to pay $2.5 billion for a 19.9% stake in Japan’s Suzuki, and General Motors announced a joint venture with SAIC, its Chinese partner, to produce small cars in India. Talks are continuing between PSA Peugeot Citroën and Mitsubishi, which could see the French carmaker take a stake of up to 50% in its Japanese counterpart. See article

It emerged that Rusal’s initial public offering in Hong Kong would be delayed until next year. The Russian aluminium company, which is controlled by Oleg Deripaska, was hoping to debut on Hong Kong’s stock exchange this month, becoming the first Russian company to list there. Despite Rusal’s recent debt-restructuring agreement with foreign creditors, stockmarket officials want more information about the loans the firm has attained from Russian banks.

The boss of TNT, a Dutch logistics company, said pressure from investors for it to split its well-performing express-delivery business from its mail division was “disruptive”. Two activist funds recently bought a 5% stake.

United Airlines placed its first order in 11 years for new jets: 25 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and 25 Airbus A350s. It is the first time United has bought wide-body long-range aircraft from the European group. The Dreamliner’s much-delayed maiden test-flight is due to take place by the end of the year.

Andy Harrison resigned as chief executive of easyJet, a pioneering low-cost airline in Europe, amid a boardroom battle over the company’s future strategy with Stelios Haji-Ioannou, its founder and biggest shareholder.

SOURCE: THE ECONOMIST





Il (nuovo) modello di supervisione micro-macro-prudenziale

6 12 2009
Editoriale de “Il Circolo Europa London” - Una breve introduzione ai nuovi standard di liquidita’. Il primo passo verso un nuovo modo di gestire la supervisione prudenziale delle banche.

L’origine dei problemi finanziari nel “sistema-banche” e’ riconducibile a una sincronia comportamentale. Le banche e gli istituti di credito si espongono a rischi simili facendo lo stesso tipo di prestiti e investimenti. Il sistema-banche e’ più soggetto a crisi quando gli intermediari ed istituti di credito propongono le stesse idee, gli stessi prodotti e, in ultima analisi, gli stessi errori. Le banche effettuano prestiti verso clienti e verso altre banche creando un network vizioso. A causa di queste connessioni interbancarie, le esistenti norme che governano il medesimo sistema non sono più sufficienti.

E’ opinione condivisa da più analisti e insiders che l’attuale crisi stia ormai volgendo al termine – e qui occorre presupporre che il crack di Dubai World sia solamente una scossa di assestamento dopo il terremoto finanziario il cui epicentro fu determinato dalla bolla dei mutui nel 2007. Le banche centrali e i regulators stanno affinando non solo i meccanismi di controllo sulle singole segnalanti (che definirei “supervisione specifica / micro-economica”) ma stanno mettendo in atto una serie di policy di “macro supervisione” al fine di regolare l’intero sistema di imprese e quindi cercare di prevenire il ripetersi di crisi di vaste proporzioni. Non si tratta affatto di una idea nuova e sono certo che ciò che e’ successo nel corso degli ultimi due anni si ripresenterà nel prossimo futuro sotto nuova forma.

E’ bene ricordare che queste nuove politiche di “macro-supervisione” degli istituti centrali (i regulators) sugli enti segnalanti non hanno come fine quello di eliminare il rischio sistemico che, per definizione, e’ determinato dal mercato e puo’, quindi, venir solo mitigato dalle singole entità ex post e non regolato ex ante.  Inoltre, e’ bene ricordare ai piu’ critici che l’implementazione di misure di “risk avoidance” sarebbe dannosa e andrebbe contro ogni logica di risk management e, quindi, contro ogni logica di mercato. Il risk management ha come scopo, infatti, quello di disegnare una serie di controlli e procedure atte alla riduzione del rischio. Evitare i rischi ex ante significherebbe rinunciare a priori alle opportunità di investimento e di surplus finanziario. E’ chiaro che maggiore e’ il potenziale surplus derivante da un investimento, maggiore e’ anche il rischio intrinseco. Lo scopo del risk management e’ quello di valuatare il rischio, identificare in tempo le aree critiche e quindi attuare le policy aziendali al fine di mitigare il rischio e, quindi, governarlo.

Le banche centrali, come la Bank of England, hanno di recente proposto di applicare i basilari concetti di risk management non solo alle singole entità di intermediazione finanziaria ma al “sistema banche” (seguite il link a pie’ di pagina per maggiori informazioni).

Il processo di monitoraggio prudenziale di una singola azienda (quello che ho in precedenza definito “micro-supervision”) esiste di già. Pensiamo, per esempio, alle attività rientranti nel Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) e nel Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP), i capisaldi del secondo pilastro del controllo prudenziale delle banche e degli intermediari finanziari (meglio noto come Basilea 2). Lo scopo di tale processo e’ quello di assicurarsi che l’ente segnalante operi una valutazione completa dei rischi e che vi siano sufficienti controlli interni nella identificazione e gestione dei medesimi. Usando il linguaggio bancario, questo processo e’ noto come ARROW (Advanced Risk Responsive Operating Framework). Lo scopo di questo processo, in ultima analisi, e’ quello di assicurarsi che le banche e gli intermediari finanziari abbiano sufficienti risorse di capitale per far fronte a una serie di rischi e in particolar modo al rischio di credito, mercato e operativo (quest’ultimo e’ un “contenitore” di rischi di varia natura). La societa’ segnalante deve quindi disporre di riserve di capitale sufficienti per fronteggiare il rischio e dimostrare (alla FSA o a chi di competenza) di aver una policy adeguata.

Il credit crunch – che ritengo essere un termine un po’ qualunquista che non rende giustizia dell’entita’ della recente crisi – ha pero’ messo a nudo un’altra problematica: la crisi di liquidità. Gli organismi centrali hanno quindi ben pensato ad operare una profonda revisione del framework di rischio di liquidità. I fondamentali del nuovo framework, cosi’ come le aree di rischio, rimangono immutati. Una strategia di gestione del rischio di liquidità non potrà far a meno di analizzare i rischi operativi ( intraday), di funding (l’incapacita’ di far fronte ai propri impegni di pagamento per difficoltà a reperire fondi sul mercato), di asset liquidity (le difficoltà a smonetizzare certe attività) e market liquidity (il rischio di sovrastima del grado di liquidità dei relativi mercati con ripercussioni sul prezzo di realizzo delle attività).

La Financial Services Authority (FSA) sarà il primo regulator a introdurre le nuove norme di liquidità nel 2010 (il resto dell’Europa introdurrà le medesime successivamente). Il nuovo framework della liquidita’ ricalca a grandi linee il controllo prudenziale (il Basilea 2). Anziché avere tre pilastri, ne avremo due (gli enti segnalanti non saranno soggetti alla preparazione di documenti di disciplina di mercato, meglio noto come “il terzo pilastro” di Basilea 2). L’aspetto operativo di monitoraggio (più o meno l’equivalente del primo pilastro di Basilea 2) rimane simile al processo attuale. La vera innovazione e’ rappresentata dalla introduzione di un processo che ricalca il secondo pilastro di Basilea 2. I processi come l’Individual Liquidity Adequacy Assessment (ILAA) e il Supervisory Liqidity Review Process (SLRP) ricalcano, rispettivamente, l’ICAAP e lo SREP di Basilea 2. L’azienda prima valuta le proprie necessita’ in materia di liquidità e successivamente la FSA esprime una propria valutazione sui medesimi.

La vera rivoluzione del nuovo framework della liquidità e’ anche rappresentato dall’introduzione di principi “macro-supervisori” oltre a quelli “micro-supervisori” (quelli specifici a una determinata azienda). La FSA fornisce linee guida in merito alla composizione del “cuscinetto” (buffer) di liquidità che una azienda deve detenere oltre all’introduzione di nuovi stress-testing. Questo buffer e’ caratterizzato da assets aventi un merito creditizio alto e solitamente costituito da titoli del tesoro e/o depositi presso gli istituti centrali. La FSA indica anche una rosa di asset e di controparti da considerare. In altre parole, le scelte disponibili, suppure relativamente varie, sono limitate. Inoltre, la FSA suggerisce linee guida in merito al ricambio degli asset includi nel buffer. Questi asset devono venir immessi sul mercato periodicamente allo scopo di mantenere liquido e dinamico l’intero sistema.

Per quanto riguarda lo stress testing, il nuovo framework della liquidità richiede alle segnalanti di produrre – ai fini del documento ILAA – degli scenario-testing piu’ rigorosi. Questi includono: idiosyncratic tests (uno stress test la cui ipotesi di fondo e’ rappresentata dalla percezione che l’azienda segnalante non sia in grado di adempiere ad impegni pregressi), market-wide tests (uno stress test basato su uno scenario di grande volatilità di mercato; si tratta – in pratica – di simulare l’impatto di un periodo di “panic selling” sulle capacità di monetizzare taluni investimenti), e una combinazione idiosyncratic/market-wide.

E le novità non finiscono qui.

Vi invito a leggere questo articolo:

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/economicsfocus/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14960099

Written by S.F.